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Scot Goes Pop +ScotGoesPop
Newsfeed from 'Scot Goes Pop!', voted one of Scotland's top ten political websites. Analysis of opinion polls regarding Scotland.
 Joined September 2015    scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk
1,970 Posts   389 Followers
In the early days of King Charles' reign, I saw numerous tweets from Liberal Democrat accounts that gushed about various personal meetings with the Royal Family in a similar way to how teenage girls might gush about a meeting with Harry Styles. The Queen was referred to practically as a saint, and of course there were numerous declarations of undying loyalty to the new King.  As a veteran Lib...
We've now moved very abruptly into a new era where there is a clear expectation for the first time that a Labour government will take over at Westminster in 2024. The Truss U-turn yesterday on scrapping the 45p tax rate may stabilise the sense of Tory freefall somewhat, but paradoxically if it also helps shore up her own position as leader, it may make the impression of inevitability about a...
"I've turned because you wanted me to. The lady is for turning."So much for the Thatcher tribute act, although she didn't have much choice.— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) October 3, 2022 Roddy Dunlop really captured the mood of the room, didn't he? Just as well nobody in the Scottish mainstream media made idiots of themselves by trying to make that the story.— James Kelly...
I'm slightly puzzled that there's been so much commentary over recent days about something that the former SNP councillor Mhairi Hunter posted on Twitter a full three months ago.  Maybe it's simply because she's got half the planet blocked and it's taken this long for the news to filter through.  This is what she said - "If Supreme Court finds Scotland Act prevents Scotparl...
I feel slightly queasy even raising this issue, because it took years and years for the independence movement to convince the SNP leadership of the necessity of having a plebiscite election as the back-up option if an independence referendum proved not to be possible.  Having finally persuaded them of that (some would argue they had to be dragged kicking and screaming to the realisation),...
YouGov have rushed out the data tables from their new GB-wide voting intention poll much quicker than usual, and I'm not surprised, because it's a poll that probably deserves the term "historic".  Although I'm old enough to remember many, many polls showing similarly humungous Labour leads in the 1990s, almost all of them came after we had practically started factoring in a Labour government...
Thanks to Anon on the previous thread for pointing me in the direction of the general election seats projection from a new MRP survey conducted by ComRes for LabourList.  MRP projects have been in vogue in recent years, partly because YouGov's MRP projection for the 2017 general election proved to be much more accurate than their conventional polling.  (Embarrassingly, they had gone out...
It's still the case (as far as I can see, anyway) that there has been only one poll on Scottish independence since the death of the Queen - that was the Deltapoll survey that The Sun infamously lied through their teeth about, even though they had commissioned it themselves.  Leaving aside that newspaper's nonsense about the poll showing Yes support had "plummeted" (long since hastily deleted...
I mentioned Blair McDougall in my last post, and it really is getting quite comical - in tedious tweet after tedious tweet, in tiresome blogpost after tiresome blogpost, he explains to us how Scottish Labour's strategy is sheer electoral brilliance, while the SNP's strategy is cackhanded and self-destructive.  If you were visiting from Mars, you'd think to yourself "compelling stuff from...
I watched a fair bit of the coverage of Keir Starmer's speech yesterday, and of course the subject of Scotland came up a few times.  I always feel that watching the London media's take on Scottish politics is like stepping into a parallel universe where different laws of physics apply. It was repeatedly suggested that the newly enhanced prospect of a Labour government after 2024 will make...
The Conservatives love nothing more than tinkering with their system for electing a leader, especially after a leadership election that is perceived to have 'gone wrong' in some way - which, happily, is almost every leadership election.  Mrs Thatcher actually won 55% of the votes in the first round of the 1990 contest, and the only reason it was possible for her to be ejected was because of a...
Fantasy: Scots won't leave Scotlad because of higher taxes. Reality: Hundreds of years of Scots (including ourselves) leaving Scotland for better opportunities.— The Majority (@themajorityscot) September 26, 2022 You're not even a voter in Scotland, then. What a load of sound and fury from you, signifying nothing.— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) September 26, 2022 Just to be clear: When we were...
It now seems like a statement of the bleedin' obvious that the gamble from Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng in the mini-budget has not paid off, given the firm thumbs-down from the markets and the slippage of the pound to bargain basement levels not seen since the 1980s.  However it's still a landmark moment to have opinion poll confirmation of the Tories falling further behind after the...
I've finally had a chance to catch up with the independence numbers from the Social Attitudes Survey that caused so much excitement a couple of days ago.  What strikes me most is that the survey seems to exist in a slightly different universe from the more conventional polling we're used to seeing.  We thought we knew that 2020 was (by far) the high watermark for independence support to...
One type of context we sometimes lose when we think about political history is the sense of shock in the moment about certain developments.  People didn't know Churchill would be proved right about Germany in the 1930s - they thought the opposite.  People didn't know the communist bloc would fall in the 1980s - in fact they expected it to persist indefinitely, albeit perhaps in a...
Given the extent of devolution that Scotland already has, it's inevitable that this package will be as much about the rest of the devolved UK getting the powers Scotland has. But that in itself, alongside HoL reform, is an offer to Scottish voters of a reformed UK. t.co/dgqf1VvDo6— Blair McDougall (@blairmcdougall) September 22, 2022 In other words, Scotland is getting nothing. It's...
A couple of people have been in touch with me after making complaints to the press regulator IPSO about The Sun's notorious article in which they misrepresented the results of their own poll on independence.  It seems IPSO's initial response to anyone complaining has been to ask "how do you know" that The Sun were making a (bogus) comparison with last month's Panelbase poll, and also to ask...
Just a couple of little plugs while I'm thinking of them.  First of all, it looks like there are still delegate passes available for the Alba Party conference in Stirling next month.  Any Alba member can purchase a pass on a first come, first served basis via the link HERE.  For an emerging party like Alba that is still starved of mainstream media attention, video clips of the party...
Every time there's a poll on independence that shows a No lead, there's always a minor chorus of people asking me "did they interview 16 and 17 year olds?"  And it's been getting to the point where I just roll my eyes to the heavens, because the answer is almost always "yes" - it's become completely standard to include over-16s in Scottish indy polls.  But, I'm afraid, the now-notorious...
So here's a polling observation of a very different sort from the ones I normally make on this blog.  If a pollster asks people how many sexual partners they've had in their lives, heteorosexual men will on average give a much higher number than heterosexual women, which on the face of it doesn't make any sense.  There are potential statistical explanations that would square the circle,...
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