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Ballot Box Scotland +BallotBoxScot
Scottish election data, polling and projections.
217 Posts   42 Followers
In a poll that slipped under the radar like an Australian nuclear submarine, the Lib Dems may be seeing faint stirrings of recovery, whilst it's Brexit 2: Those Numbers Boogaloo as the constitutional question seemingly settles into a 52:48 split in favour of the union. [...]
The departure of the ward's long-serving but third-placed Labour councillor sets up a comparatively rare for the Central Belt SNP-Conservative contest. [...]
A second poll in as many days will have had the Greens grinning from ear to ear with a record high share for the party, whilst narrow support for the Union prevails. [...]
In just the second poll since this year's Holyrood election, Opinium find slightly weakened Conservative and Labour shares open a handful of doors for SNP, Green and Lib Dem gains. [...]
An SNP vacancy opened the door for a broadly expected Conservative victory, in a typical Aberdeenshire by-election. [...]
After a dismal decade, the Scottish Lib Dems have a new leader. But having made a strategic choice that has backed them into an electoral corner, can they regrow in time for 2026? [...]
A double-dunter of Independent resignations led to a similar double for the Lib Dems, who picked up one expected and one surprise win. [...]
An easy victory for the Conservatives following an SNP vacancy in a ward that had been dominated by Independent candidates in 2017. [...]
A contest arising from the sad passing of a very long serving Labour councillor led to an unsurprising SNP victory, but surprise second place for Conservatives and growth for Greens. [...]
An SNP Councillor becoming an MSP has triggered a by-election in a wad the Conservatives would have easily won in 2017 - but they could yet pull an Ellon and hold the seat. [...]
An SNP resignation triggers an unpredictable contest in a ward that was remarkably Independent-leaning for a Central Belt ward in 2017. [...]
A second Highland by-election in the one day prompted by an Independent resignation, this may have opened the way for a former Independent councillor to return. [...]
Following the resignation of an Independent, the Lib Dems would appear on 2017 results to be favourites in this by election. But can they count on a party vote, or is their serving councillor elected on a personal basis? [...]
The first full Scottish poll since May's election has very little to get excited about. All swings are within margin of error, as is the constitutional question, though the trend is now consistently pro-Union. [...]
A second Livingston by-election of the year follows the passing of a long-serving Labour councillor. 2017 results here look very similar to that other by-election - so will the outcome here follow with an SNP win despite Labour winning the 2017 recalc? [...]
A by-election saw an Independent keeping the seat in the family, as a son succeeded his late father in a storming victory that left the SNP and Labour in the dust. [...]
An expected victory for the Conservatives in a ward they'd led in 2017, against a backdrop of Greens and Lib Dems unable to rely on their candidate's personal votes this time. [...]
Sure, Holyrood is unlikely to vote for my hyper-proportional, FPTP-free preferred voting system. But there are some solid, yet mild, reforms to AMS that could vastly improve it. [...]
With analysis of the real election results out of the way, BBS now turns to one of my pet topics - hypothetical electoral reforms to improve proportionality! [...]
Scotland came into the election with 16 marginal seats, and has left with the same number - though only 12 are the same seats. Tactical voting was a story of the election, and seems to have benefitted Labour and Lib Dems more than Conservatives. [...]
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