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Ballot Box Scotland +BallotBoxScot
Scottish election data, polling and projections.
 Joined December 2018    ballotbox.scot
245 Posts   43 Followers
The very final by-election of the 2017-2022 term delivers an unsurprising Labour victory and, perhaps more surprisingly, a suite of only very small swings. [...]
2022 is off to a fiery start as seemingly the entire Holyrood wing of the Conservatives launch into open revolt against Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Some commentators are talking about a new political party, echoing Murdo Fraser's 2011 campaign pledge. [...]
For one final look back at 2021, we're looking at the constitutional twists and turns in a year that started with a lead for Independence and ends with one for the Union. [...]
The months following an election are never the busiest time for polling, but what there is to end the year finds everyone else at Holyrood gaining at least a little at the Conservatives' expense. [...]
STV proved typically messy throughout 2021, with a mighty 22 by-elections giving the SNP, Conservatives and Lib Dems electoral gains since 2017, whilst Labour fell backwards. [...]
The last by-election of the year, and second last of the term, gives an expected Conservative victory in a largely rural ward, where Independents rather than the SNP were their main challengers. [...]
What is definitely, this time, the last by-election of the term follows the sad passing of a very long-serving Labour councillor. They'll have the edge here, but there's been a lot of change since 2017 that could see them facing a stiff challenge. [...]
A Highland surprise with no strong Independent results leads to an easy SNP victory over partially strengthened Conservatives, and an unexpectedly solid third place for the Greens. [...]
Rounding out the set for 2017 by-elections, this trip in our electoral TARDIS takes us to a vote that arose from a Labour councillor taking the step up to Westminster. [...]
A dramatic poll showing an Independence lead cuts a stark contrast to the Union-leaning stasis of other pollsters. The leading parties in that bloc also see themselves with positive vote figures, with only the Lib Dems finding anything positive amongst pro-Union parties. [...]
YouGov's first post-election poll has bad news for the Conservatives but happier tidings for the Greens and Lib Dems, alongside some very interesting findings on a multi question constitutional referendum. [...]
This week's rummage in the 2017 archives brings us to another ward that has had two by-elections in this term, when a Conservative councillor resigned early on, for grim reasons. [...]
This funding will allow Ballot Box Scotland to substantially broaden the coverage provided during the run up to Scotland's Local Elections in May 2022.Commissioned Polling (approx £3,000)Most of the funds raised will cover the cost of commissioning an opinion poll from a reputable, BPC-member polling firm. The poll will include questions on:Local Election first preference party voting...
I'm taking one small step for polling, one giant leap for Ballot Box Scotland by launching a dedicated crowdfunder to expand my coverage ahead of the 2022 Local Elections, to fund a poll and a series of articles. [...]
Though polling hasn't yet strayed much from May's election results, the oscillation here gives strong figures for the SNP, Greens and Lib Dems, whilst showing the Conservatives in their weakest position of the term thus far. [...]
This early-term by-election followed a remarkable hat trick for a Conservative who was elected councillor, councillor again, then MP all within the space of a year. [...]
The most surprising of our end of term by-elections comes from a last-minute resignation, where the Conservatives seem the clear favourites, with their only real challengers likely to be an Independent. [...]
The first of a spate of "councillor elected in May becomes an MP in June" by-elections back in 2017 saw a popular Lib Dem pave the way for the speedy return of a local Independent. [...]
Another late term by-election concludes the lengthy saga of an Independent councillor disqualified for harassing his fellow councillors. [...]
For this dip into the archives, we look at the Curious Case of the Conservative Councillor Who (C)Wasn't, which led to a dramatic but ultimately pointless little success story for a minor party. [...]
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