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Ballot Box Scotland +BallotBoxScot
Scottish election data, polling and projections.
 Joined December 2018    ballotbox.scot
379 Posts   52 Followers
A Lib Dem vacancy in the historically Independent Highlands proved the perfect opportunity to add to the non-partisan bloc on the council. [...]
The Conservatives score a big victory in a by-election without a strong Independent, meaning there's more nuance to this one than the headline figures suggest. [...]
A surprising slide for Labour may have the SNP breathing a sigh of relief, but one poll does not a trend make, so stay tuned for further evidence. [...]
The long saga of Rutherglen and Hamilton West finally draws to a close with a by-election that couldn't come at a worse time for the SNP - or a better time for Labour. [...]
The Lib Dems are given a clearer run at winning the seat vacated by one of their own councillors, as a popular Independent chooses not to attempt a return. [...]
Labour's best poll by every measure since the Independence referendum will be unwelcome reading for the SNP, whilst the Conservatives suffer their own mid-term blues as the pollster takes a flight of fancy with Reform UK. [...]
Our first autumn by-election goes to South Ayrshire, which had barely a peep of political interest in the last term, as the SNP group leader's resignation opens the way for a likely Conservative victory. [...]
A mild recovery for the SNP will be a welcome breather for that party, suggesting they could easily continue their current government with the Greens. Labour nonetheless have one of their best performances in years, coming largely at the expense of a slump for the Conservatives. [...]
The Greens' absence from most constituencies is a widely known feature of Scottish politics. The reasons why, however, are much less weel-kent, and the absence hasn't been complete, allowing a reasonable guess at an alternative 2021 outcome. [...]
With a Labour victory already all but assured in this by-election, a second place for the Conservatives was further salt in the wound for the struggling SNP. [...]
If you were expecting the bad polling news to continue for the SNP, you would be correct. Labour continue to inch closer to first place on all votes, whilst Independence support also takes a slight dip. [...]
After two aborted reviews and two rounds of redrawing for this third review, it looks like Scotland is getting new UK Parliament Constituencies. This piece takes a quick look over these final proposals. [...]
More bad polling news for the SNP has Labour nipping at their heels at Holyrood, whilst also failing to find an SNP lead for the first time in a standard Westminster poll since before the Independence Referendum. [...]
The first by-election since Humza Yousaf took office came under dire circumstances both nationally and locally, leading to exactly the easy Labour victory I'd predicted. [...]
Another poor poll for the SNP has them tied on the list vote with Labour, whilst the Greens and Lib Dems seemingly bounce back from a minor party squeeze. Despite the SNP's troubles, the constitutional question is a near tie, with slight advantage to the Union. [...]
Six months ago the SNP were seemingly unchallengeable as Scotland's largest party, yet an unforeseeably challenging period has left them looking more vulnerable than at any time since the referendum. [...]
An SNP-triggered by-election in the only East Kilbride ward they weren't overall winners in 2022 comes at the worst possible time for the party and seems almost certain to go Labour's way. [...]
The fourth outing in a monthly tracker stabilises a little bit, with a still very weak SNP benefitting from Labour's surge stalling, whilst the Greens record their best ever seat projection and the Constitutional question remains pretty steady with advantage to the Union. [...]
True to their form, Ipsos give the most favourable SNP figures of anyone in the recent run of polling, and even suggest a lead for Independence. Although the headline figures are outliers, the direction of travel is the same: a sharp loss of SNP support. [...]
Note: Due to the detailed nature of the topic, this piece is significantly longer than a usual BBS article! Context What’s Happening? Boundaries Scotland have recently published the provisional proposals (link to the primary page about the review) from the [...]
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